At a recent White House event where President Trump announced a new list of countries facing U.S. tariffs, observers were surprised to see Russia missing. However, exemption from U.S. tariffs does not mean Russia is immune to negative consequences. In fact, oil—Russia’s top export—has seen a sharp price drop, heavily influenced by U.S. trade policies.

Specifically, the price of Urals crude—Russia’s main export oil—has fallen to around $52 per barrel, nearly 30% below the $70 baseline used by Moscow to plan its 2025 budget. This decline is driven not only by U.S. tariffs on China but also by a surprise production increase from OPEC+.

Oil exports account for over 30% of Russia’s federal budget. The plummeting oil prices have placed the Russian economy in a difficult position, especially as the country continues to maintain high defense spending to support its involvement in the Ukraine conflict. The Russian Central Bank has warned that a prolonged period of low oil prices could severely threaten national financial stability.

The Oil Market and Ripple Effects on Russia’s Economy

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina cautioned in a parliamentary hearing that if the trade war drags on, global trade will slow, energy demand will fall, and Russia will face “real risks.”

Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov described the situation as “tense and chaotic” both emotionally and economically. Financial authorities in Moscow are scrambling to mitigate the impact of the global economic crisis.

Russia’s exclusion from the U.S. tariff list has also sparked divided opinions among analysts. Some believe Washington is leaving the door open for future negotiations on Ukraine. Others argue that U.S.–Russia trade volumes are too insignificant to warrant tariff consideration.

Still, the reality remains: while many nations are suffering under tariff pressure, Russia is grappling with an oil price crisis—ironically exacerbated by the very policies driving global tariff wars.

Trump’s Strategic Leverage Through Oil Prices

Given Russia’s deep reliance on oil, the country is now in a vulnerable position—something President Trump could exploit as strategic leverage if he chooses to use economic tools for political influence.

“High oil prices over the past three years have helped Russia resist sanctions. Now, with prices falling, this presents a rare opportunity for the U.S. and the West to increase pressure,” noted Janis Kluge, a German economic expert.

Even insiders within Russia are beginning to express concern. Alexandra Prokopenko, former advisor to the Russian Central Bank, warned that if oil prices don’t recover soon, the Russian government will be forced to cut spending—even in sensitive sectors like defense.

Russia’s current interest rate stands at a high 21% to combat inflation. But with falling oil revenues, the central bank has limited room to lower rates to support economic growth.

Opportunities and Challenges Amid Crisis

Despite these challenges, some Russian analysts see a silver lining. Boris Titov, President Putin’s envoy for international business, views the absence of U.S. tariffs as an opportunity to promote domestic manufacturing and reduce dependence on raw material exports.

“We can use this to develop new industries that serve both domestic markets and even the U.S. market. Tariffs on countries like China could shift investment flows toward Russia,” Titov said.

However, he also cautioned that any slowdown in China’s economy—Russia’s largest trading partner—could have a major impact. With Russia’s increasing economic dependence on China, any turbulence in Beijing could ripple directly into Moscow.

In short, although Russia has avoided direct U.S. tariffs, it remains deeply affected by global economic shifts. Meanwhile, the Trump administration unexpectedly holds a strategic “lever” through the energy market. For Vietnamese import-export businesses, this is a crucial moment to stay alert, flexible, and embrace technology-driven strategies—turning global challenges into sustainable transformation opportunities.