1. Washington’s “90-Day Window”: Opportunity or Ultimatum?

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump sent shockwaves through global markets by announcing a sweeping retaliatory tariff package of up to 145% on imports from 18 key trade partners. Soon after, the White House tempered its stance—reducing tariffs to 10% and initiating a 90-day grace period, urging all parties to return to the negotiation table.

Speaking on CNN, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized, “If you don’t negotiate in good faith, tariffs will return to April 2 levels.” This warning transformed the temporary pause into a narrow window of opportunity for the EU, China, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and others to sign deals “favorable to America.”

Core message: Tariffs are not permanent punishment—they’re leverage to pressure partners into making concessions within a limited time frame.

2. Why Is Washington Using a Strategy of Uncertainty?

Secretary Bessent admitted that the White House is deliberately creating strategic ambiguity:

Trump’s strategists believe ambiguity will agitate foreign businesses and governments, increasing internal pressure to yield to U.S. demands. However, this approach could:

• Drive up global logistics costs;
• Lead to higher input costs for American companies;
• Encourage partners to diversify away from U.S. suppliers.

3. Impact on Vietnam’s Supply Chains and Trade

3.1 Order Disruptions

Though Vietnam is not among the 18 targeted countries, it is still affected by the ripple effects:

• Textile and furniture orders from U.S. buyers may be delayed as importers wait to see if tariffs will be expanded to more countries.
• For electronics and components, input materials like chips, rolled steel, and aluminum from Japan, Korea, and the EU may surge in price—impacting Vietnam's production costs.

3.2 Opportunity to “Bypass Tariffs”

On the upside, Vietnam can expand its market share in product categories where China or Mexico face steep tariffs if negotiations fail—such as furniture, toys, and fast-moving consumer goods.

Suggested action: Vietnamese exporters should proactively engage U.S. buyers, highlight their supply chain transparency, and demonstrate compliance with labor and environmental standards to attract shifted orders.

4. Three Possible Scenarios After the 90-Day Deadline

Vietnamese SMEs should prepare scenario-based plans for inventory management, FOB/CIF contracts, and currency risk (as USD may swing with rising tensions).

5. Recommendations for Vietnamese Businesses and Policymakers

• Monitor the 18 U.S. partners closely—if your supply chain involves any of them, reassess your delivery timelines and cost structure.
• Diversify input markets by sourcing steel, aluminum, and electronic parts from outside high-tariff regions.
• Proactively negotiate price-adjustment clauses in long-term contracts with U.S. clients to buffer against volatility.
• Leverage CPTPP and EVFTA agreements to expand exports to the EU, Canada, and Mexico—reducing reliance on the U.S.
• The Vietnamese government should accelerate bilateral FTAs with economies under U.S. pressure, helping local firms access preferential supply channels.